As market conditions remain weak, indicating that manufacturers want to continue spending but are unable to do so, new investments by panel manufacturers are mainly targeted at the high-end IT market (laptops, tablets and displays), but some manufacturers are retrenching as demand in these markets is now significantly lower.

In the latest update of DSCC's Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report, looking at the 2020-2026 period, overall equipment capex was revised down by 3% to $62 billion.

In 2023: Compared to DSCC's previous forecast, down 7% to $3.5 billion, one of the worst years for display equipment spending, due to demand being pulled during the COVID, now weak demand and the economic downturn in the general environment, consumers not responding to lower TV prices, and too much supply added during and after the COVID. LCD display spending decreased by 15% compared to the previous quarter, OLED spending decreased by 2% compared to the previous quarter, and is now down 65% year-over-year due to one plant delay. But 2023 from the point of view of equipment orders should be a high growth time point, up 250% to $11 billion. New OLED and LCD investments are also aimed at the high-end IT market.

2024: An increase of 9% compared to DSCC's previous forecast, or 132% year-on-year. This is mainly due to part of SDC's IT OLED investment being pulled to 2024 from 2025 and offset by LGD's IT OLED spending expected to be delayed to 2025. Panel makers believe that both OLED and LCD can have a place in the market. OLED spending is expected to grow 143 percent year-over-year to $5 billion while LCD spending is expected to grow 146 percent to $3.2 billion.

2025: Down 15% compared to the previous quarter. That's down 36 percent year-on-year. OLED spending fell 40 percent compared to the previous quarter and 31 percent year over year. On the other hand, LCD display spending, which includes Vedanta projects in India, grew 335 percent quarter-over-quarter, but LCD display spending is still expected to decline 44 percent year-over-year.

In the latest analysis update of equipment manufacturers, Canon /Tokki is expected to maintain the first position in 2023. If Canon and Tokki were separated, Canon would rank second, Tokki third, and Applied Materials (AMAT) first. Both (Canon /Tokki and AMAT) are expected to increase their share in 2023. AMAT will benefit from shipments of its open mask VTE equipment for eLEAP/ViP processes. Nikon remained in third place, but its lithography share dropped from 43% to 40%. Nikon is expected to lead in OLED exposure devices, while Canon leads in LCDS.

TEL is expected to rise from 5th to 4th place, ahead of ULVAC, but both are relatively losing share.

Despite the 70% decline in the market, growth is expected for some companies, such as Kateeva in new IJP applications, including Liande, Shinsee, Shenzhen Shenkeda, Philoptics and HYC.

Source: DSCC